"The Economic Consequences of Covid 19 for the Middle East", Virtual Workshop, 6th April 2020

The challenges presented by Covid 19 are not limited to the health sector. The economic turmoil generated by the virus is without precedent and its implications are beginning to be understood.To explore the consequence of Covid 19 for Middle Eastern economies, Forward Thinking convened a small virtual workshop of economic experts on the 6th of April.The situation they outlined was stark. Covid 19 will strike at all traditional sources of growth - oil and gas; manufacturing and tourism. Capital flight has already begun, while heavily indebted countries are already coming under pressure and may be at risk of default. In combination this factors threaten to unleash an economic storm, bringing growth to a standstill or sparking recession. In turn, this produces a heightened risk of  widespread social unrest and instability.Given the weakness (or absence) of social security nets in large parts of the region, it also needs to be questioned how realistic the strategy of social distancing applied by developed economies for the Middle East. This is especially true for the region's many refugee camps or in conflict zones such as Yemen. Should the virus reach these areas it could cause untold devastation.International policymakers need to be alert to these challenges and developing their responses before it is too late. In the coming weeks, we will explore convene meetings of the Helsinki Policy Forum's Economic Working Group to try and ensure there is awareness of the scale of the challenges and a more coordinated policy response.